The long running dispute between the World Trade Organization and Indonesia over the country’s ban on the export of less than fully processed and refined nickel continues to drag on. Indonesia is said to be planning to present new arguments in support of its appeal against the 2022 decision that the export ban represents a breach of the 1994 General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade.
Regardless of any new arguments that Indonesia may come up with, there is a strong possibility that Indonesia will still lose its appeal. In that event, however, it is most unlikely Indonesia will drop the nickel export ban, thereby seemingly putting Indonesia on an inevitable “collision course” with the World Trade Organization. It is questionable, though, whether any such “collision” will actually occur.
There is much potential for Indonesia to engage in almost endless procedural “manoeuvring” before any penalties can be imposed on it at all. More importantly, the World Trade Organization and its members could well be reluctant to take serious action against Indonesia because of greater geo-political considerations “playing out” in the world today. Once again, Indonesia may find that, due to good luck rather than good management, it is “on the right side of history” just as it was in 1949.
In this article, the writer will consider how and why Indonesia may avoid any serious ramifications, at least for a long time and possibly forever, if it loses the appeal but continues to insist upon enforcing the nickel export ban.